Why History Doesn't Favor J.J. Watt | NFL Injuries Can Slow Down The Best Of Pass Rushers

The Badgers have put a quite a few players in the NFL over the last number of years, and out of all of them, J.J. Watt is the one that stands out. Watt has quickly become possibly the league's best defensive player in short order topped off by winning the 2012 NFL defensive player of the year award. Watt is a monster of a football player, standing 6'5”, and 295 pounds, so it easy to see how he could become what he has become. However, before you expect even bigger things from Watt in 2013, I may some bad news for you. History does not favor Watt at the moment.

If you look throughout recent NFL history, plenty of players have had a big breakout season, 2-4 seasons or so into their NFL careers. This gets everyone all excited about their limitless potential, possibly even expecting bigger things from that player the following season, which even places somewhat of unrealistic expectations on that player. History shows us that very few players ever replicate success the following season after their big “breakout” year, especially defensive players. In fact, we need to look no further than our own Green Bay Packers as an example of this.

Injuries Slow Down The Pass Rusher Every Time

In 2010 Clay Matthews, Tramon Williams, and B.J. Raji all had huge breakout seasons. Matthews was a force off the edge all season that year, recording 13.5 sacks and being named to his second Pro Bowl. Tramon Williams had raised the depth chart to become the Packers cover corner opposite the now departed Charles Woodson. Williams started all 16 games, recorded six interceptions, and was named to his first Pro Bowl. Raji had a breakout year, not in terms of numbers, but in terms of performance, and was named to the Pro Bowl as well. Oh yeah, these three, along with Woodson, anchored the Packers defense on their way to their Super Bowl victory that season. As a result of these performances, all three had very high expectations placed on them for the following season, and none of them replicated their 2010 performances. Matthews recorded just six sacks in 2011, Raji played too many snaps, and Williams began to deal with injury problems.

What does this tell us about J.J. Watt? Well, it's very simple; before you expect even bigger things, remember that history does not favor J.J. Watt in terms of duplicating his 2012 success next season. 

Badgers Head to Minneapolis In November 2013 | Will The Axe Stay With Bucky?

Will the Badgers crush the Gophers the next time that they fight for the Axe?  If you go back in time to October of 2012, you will recall that Wisconsin took care of business in a big way.  They finished that day with a 25 point margin of victory over the hapless Golden Gophers.  James White destroyed the Minnesota defense, rushing for three touchdowns that day.  Montee Ball also had a field day, racking up over 160 yards on the ground.

That victory put the Badgers at 3-1 in the Big Ten.  Will it happen again this season?  We won't find out until November 23.  That's when Badgers fans will be scrambling for Minneapolis tickets in a big way.  Their beloved Badgers will have to repeat their success on the road in 2013.  That game is part of a three game, season ending stretch, where they face three Big Ten teams in a row.  First they will play Indiana at Camp Randall, then play the Gophers on the road.  The final game of the season is on 11/30, when they host Penn State. 

Badgers Find A Way To Win | Will They Make It To The Tournament?

As the Badgers entered Big Ten Conference play in January, there were serious doubts as to whether this team would play in any sort of postseason tournament, much less the NCAA tournament, They had a pedestrian 9-4 record, with no notable wins. What made it worse was that the only four teams that were any good that the Badgers had played at that point- Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette, they lost, three of them by double digits.

Badgers Dig Themselves Out

All of a sudden though, and seemingly out of nowhere, the Badgers sprung to life. They opened up conference play with a couple of so-so wins against Penn State and Nebraska. It was on January 12^th that they stunned America when they jack-hammered then 12^th ranked Illinois by 23 at home. They followed that up with five point win against Indiana that basically righted all of their wrongs the first two months of the season. Since then the Badgers have put together a nice resume, one that is deserving of an NCAA tournament bid. While others might point to defense, or even specifically in this case, rebounding, as the Badgers rebounding has improved the last couple of months, it was at this point though that something else began to happen that might better explain the success of these Badgers this season. They began to get lucky. Very, very lucky.

Yes they beat Indiana by five. However, The Hoosiers shot just 37% that night. The shots were there, they just didn't fall. Two weeks later they escaped the Gophers by one point, and needed Minnesota to miss shots, much like Indiana had done 11 days before. Wisconsin then beat Iowa by four in double overtime, and then beat Michigan by three in overtime just three days later. Yes they did beat Ohio State by 22 after that, but that doesn't discount the close wins. Honestly, I don't know what the answer is right now. Is this team actually good, such as the games against Illinois and Ohio State would suggest, or are they just plain lucky?

Badgers Basketball Team Comes To Life | NCAA Tournament Still In Sight

As the calendar turned to 2013, the Wisconsin Badgers wereleft for dead. Their season was pretty much toast and they were given no chance to make the NCAA tournament. It's not like the season was being considered a disappointment either. Many thought this was Bo Ryan's worst team ever during his tenure in Madison and the preseason loss of point guard Josh Gasser really hurt. At that point, any chances they had of making the tournament yet again this season had been thrown out the window. Something unusual, and this is what makes sports so darn awesome happened after New Year's- all of a sudden the Badgers gained some traction and their season sprung to life.

The Badgers began Big Ten Conference play with several okay wins, at home against Penn State and on the road against Nebraska. Alright then, couple of so-so wins. It’s nothing to get excited about. It's what happened after the Nebraska that caught everyone's attention. Illinois came into the Kohl Center on January 12^th feeling confident and left, well, not so much, losing 74-51. The Badgers went on the road three days later and pulled off perhaps the biggest upset of the college basketball season, defeating preseason number one and currently ranked number two Indiana 49-47. Wisconsin came down to earth in the next two games and I thought that the Badgers had peaked and were on their way down. They proceeded to come home and beat 12^th ranked Minnesota on a last second shot.

Some of this has been luck though. Indiana couldn't hit a shot to save their life that night and the Badgers needed to Gophers to have their worst game of the season offensively. But still, a win is a win is a win. The Badgers travel to Columbus tonight to take on Ohio State. How long can the magic last though? Well, let's wait and see, shall we?